Budget Plan Takes Aim at Moving Targets

One day after Mayor Thomas Menino presented his budget plan for the next fiscal year, the Boston schools got slightly more relief than expected from the federal government. But, when all the figures affecting the city budget are known—and that could be months after the June 30 deadline for approval—the mayor’s figure of 565 layoffs could still get larger.

As of Wednesday, the mayor’s budget called for eliminating 212 teachers and teachers’ aides. There could also be layoffs of as many as 67 police officers after October 1, unless the city receives funding from the federal government.

Once again, Menino called on more unions to go along with a one-year wage freeze. So far, there have been agreements from 22 unions. Among the hold-outs are some of the largest unions, including the Boston Police Patrolmen’s Association and the Boston Teachers Union.

“If the Boston Teachers Union accepts,” said Menino, “we can save every teacher and classroom aide in good standing.”

In a statement issued Wednesday by President Richard Stutman, the BTU came close to saying the jobs could be saved without a wage freeze.

“The Boston Teachers Union is actively working with our local, state, and federal officials to identify and generate additional federal stimulus money,” said the statement. “Beyond these efforts, we have been working with the school department to place current teachers into suitable alternate subject areas for the upcoming school year. In the end we believe there will be no need to lay off a single person.”

When the mayor announced his budget, he was counting on another $16 million for the schools from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).

“We don’t see any additional money coming down from the recovery act,” he said.

A day later, Governor Deval Patrick said Boston’s Title I funding from ARRA would be $20.9 million-- about $4 million more than city officials projected a day earlier. But the chief communications officer for the Boston School Dept., Chris Horan, said there was also less money than expected from the Individuals with Disabilities Education (IDEA) Act. He said the net gain for Boston was only $2.4 million. And, with restrictions on how much of the ARRA money can be used for saving jobs, a spokesperson for the mayor said the difference would protect only about ten more positions.

The three candidates who have announced campaigns for mayor have all called for budget cuts in other areas. In a reaction to the mayor’s budget plan, City Councilor Michael Flaherty calls for more cuts in positions for managers and consultants, but makes no mention of the wage freeze. Councilor Sam Yoon has drawn attention to recommendations by the Boston Finance Commission, such as doing away with fire alarm boxes. And the day of the budget announcement, Kevin McCrea repeated in his campaign blog, “There is enough money in the budget to not layoff a single police officer or teacher.”

This year’s budget figure of $2.4 billion is higher than last year’s by $5 million, but the calculations also include a decrease in local aid by $62.2 million and contractual pay increases adding up to $55 million. While there are cuts in the School Dept. (1.9%), the Police Dept. (2.4%) and Fire Dept. (4.7%), the budget would avoid cutbacks in hours for libraries and community centers. There would even be an expansion of some school options, including early learning centers.

The budget is based on some expectation for new revenue that would have to be approved by the state legislature and the governor. The president of the Boston Municipal Research Bureau, Samuel Tyler, says the expectation for local aid might even prove too optimistic, should the state budget gap approach the worst expectations of about $1 billion. But Tyler notes there could also be more money to protect jobs if the legislature makes it easier for the city to place city employees, along with retirees and their survivors, under less expensive health insurance.

Even if the mayor’s projections prove to be the most correct, the largest city unions holding off on a wage freeze have large majorities with enough seniority to know their jobs are safe. That could make the approval of a wage freeze a hard sell.

“This is probably the worst budget I’ve seen in all the years as mayor and city councilor,” said Menino.

“You don’t see any relief out there,” he said.

In 1981, two years before Menino won his first term as a city councilor, and right after adoption of a cap on property taxes—Proposition 2½—the budget decisions were more difficult and more divisive. Officials decided to lay off hundreds of police and firefighters and close schools. A few years later, as the economy recovered, Boston would get more revenue from its property tax base and local aid from the state.

A quarter of a century later, the local tax base has declining values for residential and commercial property. And, once federal recovery money is exhausted, the dependence on state funding will be more critical. The executive director of the Mass. Budget and Policy Center, Noah Berger, says the mix and volatility of state tax revenue have to be reconsidered, as well as the tax cuts that took place in more prosperous times.

“There are basic structural budget problems that need to be resolved,” he said. “I’m not sure whether the best time to do that is now, or when the economy recovers.”

Public Funding Relieves Scarcity of Teen Jobs

Boston will spend almost $9 million this year on summer jobs for young people ages 14-24. The announcement about jobs funding took place today at the Mission Hill Main public housing development in Roxbury.

Helping to pay for the jobs over the next two years is more than $21million in funding for Massachusetts from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. In addition to the stimulus money, the state’s providing almost $10 million from the YouthWorks program and public safety funds. Boston's level-funding its contribution to summer jobs this year at $4 million.

Mayor Thomas Menino says the funding will provide Boston with 5,000 jobs. To meet a goal of 10,000 jobs, the city hopes once again for additional support from the private sector.

City officials say they still need to find jobs for as many as 4,000 more teens. The city’s job registration period ended March 16.

“Eight thousand young people applied to the HOPE Line this year,” said Menino. “That’s why we need the private sector to step up to the plate.”

Menino says public funding for summer jobs is “favorable” compared to amounts in past years, and Governor Deval Patrick noted increases in summer job spending by the state since he was elected. But his Secretary of Labor & Workforce Development, Suzanne M. Bump, says the overall job market for teens across the country is at a 60-year low. She said teen employment was currently at 38%, and 21% in low-income communities.

Applicants and employers can get more information about the YouthWorks program by calling 1 866 968-8461 . Also: information about jobs for teens from low-income families provided by ABCD.

Retail Districts Try to Survive Recession

On Newbury Street in the Back Bay, even parking tickets are down.

As an enforcement officer puts it, “Everybody’s being smart.”

They might also notice the window signs offering steep discounts, by as much as 60%. Most of the shops and stores along the upscale retail artery are still open, but vacancies are on the rise. Flanked by the glow of survivors, the dark pockets of empty space are hard to miss. So are the rental signs, some of them fronting lit-up interiors with bare shelves.

An agent with the C. Talanian Realty Co., Tom Brennan, says it’s normal for Newbury Street to have more vacancies and turnovers at the end of winter, though he acknowledges, this year, the number is “more than usual.”

“We are in a recession now,” says Brennan. “There are a lot of businesses on Newbury Street that are marginal and not surviving.”

Some of the recent departures include a fashion boutique, Whim, and a home furnishing boutique, Comptoir de Famille, but also the more familiar national clothing chain, Gap.

The president of the Newbury Street League and owner of the G2O Spa & Salon, Joyce Hampers, agrees the vacancies reflect the season and the economy, though she recalls more vacancies during the last downturn, about six years ago.

“It’s probably more the fact that everything is down,” she said, “and the fact that Newbury Street is not able to escape it completely.”

Like Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills, another high-end retail district slowed by the economic downturn, Newbury Street relies heavily on the buying power of visitors. And, to judge by figures from Boston area hotels, visits are down, especially bookings for the most expensive rooms.

If the downturn on Newbury Street is largely global, the president of the Back Bay Association, Mainzer-Cohen, says it might be made worse by the run-up in the area’s commercial property values, resulting in higher rents for retail tenants.

“My guess is that there are going to be more closings,” she said, “and some landlords will have to rethink what they are charging people. And some already are.”

Mainzer-Cohen says the potential for recovery might also be hampered by the long-running conflict between retailers and preservationists. The Back Bay Architectural Commission is working on new design guidelines for the commercial area. Mainzer-Cohen wants them to allow more large windows and to require fewer embellishments such as planters. In other words: more display and less clutter (whether planters or sandwich signs on the sidewalk).

But Mainzer-Cohen says it might also be wrong to predict the summer on Newbury Street based on how it looks in March. So does the CEO of C. Talanian Realty, David Coughlin. He says some retailers report a pick-up in business in recent weeks, and he says there are “a lot of people looking” at possible rentals.

“We need to react to the tenant market,” he said. “We’re not going to sit on space that’s empty.”

Should there be an upswing anytime soon, and should there be less restriction on retail display, Newbury Street won’t necessarily be more like a suburban mall. That fear has been increased over recent years with the influx of national chain stores. But Coughlin says there will be fewer of those tenants surviving the downturn.

By comparison with Newbury Street and the stretch of Washington Street from Downtown Crossing to School Street, vacancies are more difficult to spot in Boston’s other retail centers, even in neighborhoods with high rates of housing foreclosure.

In Dorchester’s Codman Square, on Washington Street, retail vacancies are scarce. Further along the street, past Four Corners, there’s even some business growth. What began as a women’s clothing boutique, Mod Boston, has expanded with space for men’s clothing.

Mod Boston Manager Shantae Romain says most of the store's customers are from Dorchester, Roxbury, and Mattapan, with some from the suburbs. The store also does business online. If business is slow everywhere because of the economic slump, operators of Mod Boston can at least look forward to reasons for buying, whether it’s spring break, parties, or a job interview. They can also look forward to more traffic from a new commuter rail stop close by.

Located near another stop on the same commuter rail line is the clothing store, Final Touch With Class. Owner Danny Hardaway talks about expectations from the high volume of potential shoppers, whether from trains or from the four lanes of traffic along Morton Street.

Hardaway envisions a cluster of shops and other businesses, like in Greenwich Village. And his strategy is to divert more customers from malls by offering more services, even classes in etiquette. His schedule includes a hat show in April, but it will take more time before the adjacent site of a long vacant former police station is redeveloped as housing.

At Dudley Square, vacancies are hardly abundant, but some are noticeable. Like so many stores that mainly sold recorded music, Funky Fresh Records has closed, despite a last minute upsurge in community support.

Another fixture in Dudley Square, A Nubian Notion, has downsized, after vacating space that was used for a gift shop in the renovated Dartmouth Hotel building. While the renovation has been acclaimed for improving the look of Dudley Square, the retail tenants are faced with higher rents.

The director of the Dudley Square Main Streets program, Joyce Stanley, says there have been some other recent closings in retail district, though not necessarily because of the downturn. And she says there has also been some growth, especially in businesses run by Somali immigrants.

Dudley Square’s also scheduled for new development. Last September, the city invited designs for a new municipal office building on the site of the old Ferdinand’s Furniture complex. The project has raised hopes for new customers, and some apprehensions for current businesses. The project hinges on plans to build a new city hall on the South Boston waterfront—which, in turn, would entail redevelopment of the current site of City Hall in government Center.

In the meantime, according to Stanley, some businesses that survived earlier downturns in Dudley Square are adapting, even by reducing their product line. And she says their chances are better if they own their commercial property.

“All of the merchants are saying their business is down,” she said. “It’s really slow.”

Home, Condo Sales Figures Show Deeper Chill

There's more confirmation of the chill in Boston's housing market. According to figures from the Warren Group, for single-family homes, the median price was down by more than 19%--almost the average for the whole state. Compared with January of last year, the number of sales was down by 5.9%. The statewide figure was 10.3%.

In West Roxbury, sales for single families were down by more than 41.7%, but the median price was up, by almost 28.9%. In Dorchester, there was only a slight increase in the number of sales for January (from 7 to 8), but the median price was down by 35.1%.

In Boston's condo market, sales and prices were below the state average. Even in what recently been the strongest market, the mostly high-end areas near downtown Boston, the median price was down by 18.5% and the sales volume was down by 46.7% Citywide in January, condo sales were off by almost 29.7%, while the median price was down by almost 32.7%.

In areas with more than a half dozen transactions, the largest drop in the median price for condos was in Dorchester, with a decrease of more than 69.3%. Dorchester had more condo sales than last January--an increase of 45.8%. Market observers say many of these involved properties in foreclosure.

“The inventory in the foreclosure market is just so great now,” said the Dorchester office manager for Jack Conway & Co., Julie Simmons.

“Investors are coming out of the woodwork that we haven’t seen since the 1990’s,” she said.

Simmons says clearing away the inventory of distressed properties will help the rest of the market. But observers note that bargains don’t always attract buyers who improve the property and increase values.

Simmons points to one condo unit in a three-decker on Draper Street, on Meetinghouse Hill, that recently sold for $40,000. According to real estate analyst John Anderson, two-thirds of the units recently sold in Dorchester went for less than $100,000. His figures show Dorchester condos have lost 72.4% of their market value since the last peak of the market, in mid-2006.

Though the number of condo sales in Dorchester has increased dramatically over January 2008, observers say other buyers and sellers are staying out of the market, or at least stopping short of closing a deal.

“They’re just not out there,” said Anderson. “They’re sitting on the sidelines, looking to see how far down things are going to go.”

Mortgage Troubles Erode Faith in Ownership

Note: This article appears in the Dorchester Reporter.

The mortgage troubles plaguing multi-family housing in parts of Boston are putting new strain on belief in the benefits of greater access to home ownership.

In a public policy discussion paper on subprime lending and multi-family housing released on the last day of 2008, researchers for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston argue that two widely-held beliefs in policy may have been overstated. One belief is that increasing owner-occupancy improves the quality of life for buyers and their neighborhoods. The other is in the growth of ownership among people of color—a trend that was also supposed to narrow the racial gap in wealth.

With the disproportionate toll of foreclosures on urban neighborhoods, advocates and public officials have put most of the blame on high-risk lending—especially subprime mortgages. But researchers at the Federal Reserve say the subprime loans and resulting foreclosures might also be viewed as a reflection of the buyers themselves.

“In other words,” say the researchers, “these borrowers are more likely to default because they have a history of delinquency (perhaps providing a signal of their preferences) or lack the financial means to survive an adverse financial shock or life event.”

Those same buyers would also be more vulnerable to a sharp downturn in the market. Adding to the risk would be the dependence on rental income and the need for repairs, especially in older buildings.

“If something goes wrong and you need to fix something, and nobody can live in the unit, you get into trouble very quickly,” said Paul S. Willen, a senior economist and policy advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

“The good thing about the absentee landlord,” said, “is they have a lot of reserves and they have a lot more resources than a small owner.”

The report from the Federal Reserve was confined to homes bought as multi-families. It confirms the number of black and Hispanic households who bought homes in Massachusetts doubled between 1998 and 2006. But the report also found the increase was solely due to subprime loans.

When researchers compared the number of home purchases to the number of home sales or foreclosures, they found the increase in subprime financed purchases between 2003 and 2006 in Massachusetts “was unlikely to have led to a significant increase in homeownership.”

And, according to researchers, as subprime lending increased from 2003 to 2006, there were more transactions in which buyers and sellers were both people of color. “In other words,” say researchers, “one could argue that it enabled a sort of churning of properties.”

A more recent discussion paper from the Federal Reserve also shows that subprime lending practices changed over time. The earlier subprime loans were mainly for refinancing, while the later loans were almost entirely for home purchases. Also increasing over time were loans that combined less documentation of the borrower’s income and assets with higher leverage—or a lower percentage of down payment. It was the increased leverage that researchers say contributed the most to the increase in defaults.

The resulting foreclosures are reminiscent of what happened in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s, when there was an attempt to expand home ownership opportunities for people of color by the Boston Banks Urban Renewal Group (BBURG). Under BBURG, loans were guaranteed by the federal government, so lenders had less reason to worry about risk—or finding a new buyer after a default.

Almost forty years later, lenders were passing on risk by selling their loans to financial markets. And riskier subprime and “Alt-A” loans—with higher interest rates—were also attractive to financial markets because of their higher yields for investors.

But the most recent downturn in Boston’s multi-family housing market brought yet another change in the pattern ownership—the conversion of three-deckers into condominiums on a massive scale. Before the end of the boom, when more desirable three-deckers were selling for $500,000 to $600,000, recorded sales prices on converted units in Dorchester were as high as $439,900 apiece.

Public records indicate many of the unit buyers were not occupant owners. Even some loans given for use of a unit as a primary residence went to buyers who received mortgages containing the same provision within a year on other properties. In other cases, owners of multiple units at different locations had mortgages for “second homes” that also restricted use of the property for income. And most of the lenders were mortgage companies or thrifts, which were less tightly regulated than commercial banks.

On many three-decker conversions, there were also piggyback mortgages. And researchers at the Federal Reserve say the default rates for these loans were abnormally high.

Observers say the risks were also increased in some cases by transactions at inflated prices—which had an effect on the rest of the market: when prices were climbing, other properties became less affordable; when the market fell, some of those properties had less value than what was still owed on the mortgage. According to figures for Boston from the Warren group, the sharpest falls in the median sale price for condos last year were in Mattapan (55%) and Dorchester (18%).

The changes in subprime lending practices took place in years when housing prices in Boston were still rising, or at least before a sharp downturn. And, as researchers for the Federal Reserve note, the change in practices was gradual. “Thus,” they wrote, “rather than plunging into uncharted waters, investors may have felt increasing comfort with each successive round of weaker underwriting standards.”

And Willen says prices during the boom years may have made those standards seem less important. “If house values are rising, it’s not that risky,” he reasoned. “If they’re falling, even a documented loan is going to be pretty risky.”

According to the city’s Dept. of Neighborhood Development, Boston had 1,750 foreclosures in 2006-2008, and more than half were on units owned by investors. As of last November 15, there were 955 properties taken by foreclosure that had yet to be resold.

Because so many of the foreclosed properties were owned by investors, Mayor Thomas Menino’s chief of Housing the director of the Dept. of Neighborhood Development, Evelyn Friedman, argues against putting all the blame on homeowners.

“I don’t think the issue is home ownership opportunities. The issue is the quality of lending,” said Friedman.

“Yes, we do want to have home ownership,” she said. “We want to have sustainable home ownership.”

And Friedman says that includes lending based on sound documentation of the borrower’s ability to pay.

“The lenders have to be made to be responsible for whom they’re lending to,” she said. “That’s the regulatory problem that has to be addressed.”

The executive director of the Mass. Affordable Housing Alliance (MAHA), Thomas Callahan, says the best way to stabilize the city’s multi-family houses is to have, in most cases, entire buildings in the hands of responsible investors and owner-occupants.

“It’s not the right solution to give up on owner-occupants as the bulk of the three-family owners in the city,” said Callahan.

“I think what you see in the market,” he notes, “is investor owners walking away quicker than owner-occupants do.”

Though Willen says some of the borrowers who ended up in foreclosure had taken home-ownership classes, Callahan says MAHA’s delinquency rates for two- and three-family homes were even lower than the rates for condos and single-families.

“I think two- and three-family home ownership in Boston and Massachusetts can be very stable,” he said, “if it’s done right.”

The city is using federal money to acquire 7 foreclosed properties by early next month directly from Countrywide Financial, which has been acquired by Bank of America. The city’s plan is to acquire more properties directly from companies holding the loans, and then to turn them over to private or non-profit developers and owner-occupants.

“I think the group of people we need to attract, and will be attracted to these properties,” said Friedman, “are the young first-time home-buyer who can’t afford Jamaica Plain or the Back Bay.”

A new challenge in the current downturn is that foreclosures in multi-family buildings converted into condos have taken place one unit at a time, and occasionally months or years apart. Friedman says the city will only try to acquire units where it would control the entire building.

And, if past downturns are a predictor, there is no guarantee that other properties sold after foreclosure will be stabilized quickly.

The executive director of Citizens Housing and Planning Association, Aaron Gornstein, predicts that, once the market reaches bottom—possibly after another wave of mortgage defaults caused largely by the economic downturn—recovery could take another five years. In the meantime, he says, the chance to buy cheap might not be enough to attract the kind of homeownership that benefits the neighborhood.

“Unfortunately,” said Gornstein, “it tends to attract investors who don’t have a long-term plan to invest in the neighborhood, who want to flip the property and get out.”

Mattapan, Dorchester Lead Housing Slump

The Warren Group reports single-family home sales were down last year in Boston by almost 15%. The median price decreased by more than 11%. The largest decreases in sales were in Brighton, South Boston and West Roxbury. The largest price drops were in Mattapan, at almost 31%, and East Boston, at more then 26%.

For condos in Boston, the number of sales was down by almost 20%, but the median price was up by more than 4%. The neighborhoods with the largest fall-off in condo sales were Brighton, Mattapan, East Boston and Hyde Park, all more than 30%. The largest price drops were in Mattapan, at almost 55%, and Dorchester, almost 18%. The largest increase in the price of a condo was in Roxbury, at more than 10%.

Besides having the largest price drops for all of 2008, Mattapan—among comparisons of more than a handful of transactions—had the largest price drop in December for condos (70.37%). The decreases in December condo sales were almost as high in West Roxbury (61.54%) and Charlestown (60%), but the decreases in median price were less than 10%. In East Boston’s condo market for December, the number of sales was down 46%, while the median price was down more than 30%.

Neighborhoods where the 2008 median price increased (for single-family homes) were Jamaica Plain, Brighton, Roslindale, and South Boston. There were price increases for condos in Jamaica Plain, West Roxbury, and areas close to downtown Boston, though the numbers of sales in those areas were all lower. The number of condos sold in Dorchester increased in December, compared with the same month in 2007, but the median price declined by 61.44%. The largest increase in condos sales for December was in Roxbury—more than doubling, from 13 to 27—but was price was down slightly, by 1.22%.

Boston 2009: Same City, Different State

It’s hard to recall when the state of the city had changed so much in a single year.

When Mayor Thomas Menino gave his State of the City address in January, 2008, he said the national economic climate was “uncertain,” while the state of the city was “stronger than ever.” As he told the audience at the Strand Theatre in Dorchester, Boston was “bursting with excitement, investment and potential.”

A year later, Boston is one of many cities confronting an economic crisis. Office rents and the number of active mega-projects are on the way down, while the economy shows signs of struggle everywhere from the financial sector and world-class universities to neighborhood businesses on Bowdoin Street.

In 2009, it was the neighborhoods that the mayor said were stronger than ever, if measured by diversity and population growth. If the state of the city was strong, it was, as the mayor put it, because of being in the hands of Boston residents. In other words, the road to recovery would have to include sacrifices, such as the mayor’s proposal for a one-year wage freeze for city workers with union contracts.

The crowd hadn’t even left Faneuil Hall when the wage freeze started taking some hits. As one member of the audience pointed out, there was no wage freeze for some of the elected officials listening to the speech in the front rows. But supporters of the idea can argue a wage freeze looks much more acceptable to people in the private or non-profit sector who might feel lucky if they still have a job.

By the mayor’s estimate, the wage freeze could shrink an expected budget shortfall of $140 million by $55 million. But union leaders could argue that opening up contracts for one revision could lead to more, and also shave money off workers’ pensions.

City Councilor Michael Flaherty, who would later announce his candidacy for mayor, responded by calling for cuts in unspecified wasteful programs, and for getting rid of all consultants.

“Some people will lose their jobs,” Flaherty said in a statement right after the address on January 13, making his own call for Boston to be a “national leader in lean budgeting.”

The more waste cut from the budget, the smaller the shortfall, and the less need there would be for concessions from unions. Over the past several weeks, the mayor’s administration had been sending signals about possible budget cuts in the Police and School Departments. The signals have been mixed and the message is being challenged. But, outside this year's address at Faneuil Hall, the message was reinforced. Instead of police or firefighters demonstrating over contract demands, there was a show of concern over budget cuts from a group of high school students.

The wage freeze proposal got more support from another councilor said to be considering a run for Mayor, Sam Yoon. He favors a freeze for workers making at least $100,000 a year. City Council President Mike Ross called the wage freeze “a good idea worthy of serious consideration,” but less than a complete solution to the city’s budget gap.

Union leaders can also argue the wage problem is really a revenue problem that can be solved with some help from the state. That was the hint when the president of the Boston Teachers Union, Richard Stutman, responded to the mayor’s speech by issuing a statement pledging support for helping the city get powers to collect more revenue from local option taxes, most likely on rooms or meals.

In the last economic downturn, around 2003, the mayor trimmed the city payroll with the aid of early retirement incentives. These made it possible to avoid layoffs in large numbers, and the incentives could, for example, protect the jobs of young, motivated teachers without tenure—at the expense of more experienced teachers, who also might be more inclined to move on.

But, as the president of the Boston Municipal Research Bureau, Sam Tyler points out, the incentives can take a disproportionate toll on certain departments, along with increasing the city’s pension liability. For those reasons, he says the city “should not even consider” the incentives this time around. But Tyler suggested it might be a good idea to encourage an exit by employees already eligible for retirement.

So, if the unions agreed to a wage freeze, and the city had new sources of revenue, would that close the budget gap?

“I don’t say it would prevent any kind of employee reductions,” said Tyler, “but significant cutbacks this year would not be necessary.”

Local option taxes have support from Governor Deval Patrick, but Tyler notes, even if there were to be agreement from the state legislature, and enactment at the local level, little if any of the money would be available before the new fiscal year at the beginning of July. And, based on the real estate market at the beginning of 2009, it’s expected the burden of any increase in property taxes next year would fall more heavily on homeowners.

One other departure from last year’s state of the city address was the lack of any talk about the potential School Dept. savings from a reduction in busing. Last year, the mayor said busing costs would increase 50% in five years—by $20 million, but this year’s speech came after months of declining gasoline prices.

Last year’s speech also mentioned an expansion of ties between schools, libraries and community centers that could mean less reliance on busing for equal access to quality education. The mayor called the strategy “Community Learning,” and he even referred to it as the “next Boston Miracle.” In the 2009 speech, the mayor mentioned several achievements and improvements, along with the promise of a better future, but there was no miracle.